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}, { "race_code": "WI-08", "race_type": "house", "state": "WI", "district": "08", "dem_candidate": "Rick Crosson", "rep_candidate": "Tony Wied", "incumbent_party": "REP", "seat_holder": "REP", "dem_probability": 0.0641, "rep_probability": 0.9359, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -9.58, "dem_two_party_vote": 45.2, "rep_two_party_vote": 54.8, "rating": "Safe R", "relative_partisan_lean_d_minus_r": -16.3, "prior_margin": -9.58, "poll_average_margin": null, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "presidential_margin_2024": -16.46, "aligned_independent": false, "rcv": false, "three_way": false, "same_party": null }, { "race_code": "WV-01", "race_type": "house", "state": "WV", "district": "01", "dem_candidate": "Vince George", "rep_candidate": "Carol Miller", "incumbent_party": "REP", "seat_holder": "REP", "dem_probability": 0.001, "rep_probability": 0.999, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -37.66, "dem_two_party_vote": 31.2, "rep_two_party_vote": 68.8, "rating": "Safe R", "relative_partisan_lean_d_minus_r": -44.37, "prior_margin": -37.66, "poll_average_margin": null, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "presidential_margin_2024": -45.2, "aligned_independent": false, "rcv": false, "three_way": false, "same_party": null }, { "race_code": "WV-02", "race_type": "house", "state": "WV", "district": "02", "dem_candidate": "Ace Parsi", "rep_candidate": "Riley Moore", "incumbent_party": "REP", "seat_holder": "REP", "dem_probability": 0.001, "rep_probability": 0.999, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -33.17, "dem_two_party_vote": 33.4, "rep_two_party_vote": 66.6, "rating": "Safe R", "relative_partisan_lean_d_minus_r": -39.88, "prior_margin": -33.17, "poll_average_margin": null, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "presidential_margin_2024": -40.38, "aligned_independent": false, "rcv": false, "three_way": false, "same_party": null }, { "race_code": "WY-01", "race_type": "house", "state": "WY", "district": "01", "dem_candidate": "Lisa Kinney", "rep_candidate": "Chuck Gray", "incumbent_party": null, "seat_holder": "REP", "dem_probability": 0.001, "rep_probability": 0.999, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -38.96, "dem_two_party_vote": 30.5, "rep_two_party_vote": 69.5, "rating": "Safe R", "relative_partisan_lean_d_minus_r": -46.68, "prior_margin": -38.96, "poll_average_margin": null, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "presidential_margin_2024": -46.96, "aligned_independent": false, "rcv": false, "three_way": false, "same_party": null } ], "change_since_previous_run": null, "methodology": { "partisan_lean": "5% 2016 + 20% 2020 + 75% 2024 district/state presidential margin, each centred on that year's national D-R margin", "national_environment": "35-day generic-ballot poll average with exponential recency decay, sample-size and pollster-quality weighting; partisan-sponsored polls downweighted", "incumbency": "+1.0 D / -1.0 R House; 1.15x in Senate", "race_polling": "nominee-matched polls from the last 55 days blended with the prior; weight rises sub-linearly with poll count and is capped", "probabilities": "normal-error race model plus 30,000 correlated Monte Carlo chamber simulations", "qualitative_news": "not an input to numerical probabilities", "senate_control": "Democratic caucus requires 51 seats because the vice president is Republican" }, "provenance": { "upstream_input_mirror": "ElectIndex/26_us_forecast_data", "upstream_commit": "825afc379e34d9f2cd0b0edc444ff3fa1cd63cd0", "input_sha256": "cc10e71f1ab16a749f2f5c32427555746691bfc0cd05178b1f1db94123f5645e", "files": [ "races.csv", "historical.csv", "gcb_polls.csv", "race_polls.csv" ], "note": "MIDTERM SIGNALS consumes factual/curated inputs from the upstream data repository, not its forecast outputs. Numerical transformations and simulations are performed here." }, "limitations": [ "This is a transparent baseline model, not a claim of certainty.", "Candidate-quality effects beyond incumbency are not yet separately estimated.", "Third-party and ranked-choice transfer behaviour is simplified in the chamber model.", "Race polls are used only when the poll matchup matches the current major-party nominees; missing polling remains missing.", "The model can be wrong together across many races; correlated national error is therefore simulated explicitly." ] }