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Scholten", "rep_candidate": "Steve King", "dem_probability": 0.001, "rep_probability": 0.999, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -20.026, "prior_margin": -19.705, "poll_weight": 0.24807, "poll_count": 1, "latest_race_poll": "2018-08-27", "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "ID-01", "race_type": "house", "state": "ID", "district": "01", "dem_candidate": "Cristina McNeil", "rep_candidate": "Russ Fulcher", "dem_probability": 0.001, "rep_probability": 0.999, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -35.516, "prior_margin": -35.516, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "ID-02", "race_type": "house", "state": "ID", "district": "02", "dem_candidate": "Aaron Swisher", "rep_candidate": "Mike Simpson", "dem_probability": 0.001, "rep_probability": 0.999, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -25.492, "prior_margin": -25.492, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "IL-01", "race_type": "house", "state": "IL", "district": "01", "dem_candidate": "Bobby L. 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Jones", "dem_probability": 0.999, "rep_probability": 0.001, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": 21.266, "prior_margin": 21.266, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "IL-04", "race_type": "house", "state": "IL", "district": "04", "dem_candidate": "Jesus \"Chuy\" Garcia", "rep_candidate": "Mark Wayne Lorch", "dem_probability": 0.999, "rep_probability": 0.001, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": 74.661, "prior_margin": 74.661, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "IL-05", "race_type": "house", "state": "IL", "district": "05", "dem_candidate": "Mike Quigley", "rep_candidate": "Tom Hanson", "dem_probability": 0.999, "rep_probability": 0.001, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": 51.761, "prior_margin": 51.761, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "IL-06", "race_type": "house", "state": "IL", "district": "06", "dem_candidate": "Sean Casten", "rep_candidate": "Peter J. 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Brooks", "dem_probability": 0.080657, "rep_probability": 0.919343, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -8.824, "prior_margin": -8.824, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "IN-06", "race_type": "house", "state": "IN", "district": "06", "dem_candidate": "Jeannine Lee Lake", "rep_candidate": "Greg Pence", "dem_probability": 0.001, "rep_probability": 0.999, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -31.689, "prior_margin": -31.689, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "IN-07", "race_type": "house", "state": "IN", "district": "07", "dem_candidate": "Andr\u00e9 Carson", "rep_candidate": "Wayne \"Gunny\" Harmon", "dem_probability": 0.999, "rep_probability": 0.001, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": 30.92, "prior_margin": 30.92, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "IN-08", "race_type": "house", "state": "IN", "district": "08", "dem_candidate": "William Tanoos", "rep_candidate": "Larry Bucshon", "dem_probability": 0.001, "rep_probability": 0.999, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -25.727, "prior_margin": -25.727, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "IN-09", "race_type": "house", "state": "IN", "district": "09", "dem_candidate": "Liz Watson", "rep_candidate": "Trey Hollingsworth", "dem_probability": 0.001, "rep_probability": 0.999, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -20.657, "prior_margin": -20.657, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "IN-S1", "race_type": "senate", "state": "IN", "district": null, "dem_candidate": "Joe Donnelly", "rep_candidate": "Mike Braun", "dem_probability": 0.33485, "rep_probability": 0.66515, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -2.346, "prior_margin": -11.771, "poll_weight": 0.56225, "poll_count": 5, "latest_race_poll": "2018-08-29", "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "KS-01", "race_type": "house", "state": "KS", "district": "01", "dem_candidate": "Alan LaPolice", "rep_candidate": "Roger Marshall", "dem_probability": 0.001, "rep_probability": 0.999, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -42.599, "prior_margin": -42.599, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "KS-02", "race_type": "house", "state": "KS", "district": "02", "dem_candidate": "Paul Davis", "rep_candidate": "Steve Watkins", "dem_probability": 0.018879, "rep_probability": 0.981121, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -13.088, "prior_margin": -13.088, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "KS-03", "race_type": "house", "state": "KS", "district": "03", "dem_candidate": "Sharice Davids", "rep_candidate": "Kevin Yoder", "dem_probability": 0.700023, "rep_probability": 0.299977, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": 2.982, "prior_margin": 2.976, "poll_weight": 0.23219, "poll_count": 1, "latest_race_poll": "2018-08-15", "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "KS-04", "race_type": "house", "state": "KS", "district": "04", "dem_candidate": "James A. Thompson", "rep_candidate": "Ron Estes", "dem_probability": 0.001, "rep_probability": 0.999, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -19.79, "prior_margin": -24.166, "poll_weight": 0.21382, "poll_count": 1, "latest_race_poll": "2018-07-19", "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "KY-01", "race_type": "house", "state": "KY", "district": "01", "dem_candidate": "Paul Walker", "rep_candidate": "James Comer", "dem_probability": 0.001, "rep_probability": 0.999, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": -41.776, "prior_margin": -41.776, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "cutoff": "2018-09-07" }, { "race_code": "KY-02", "race_type": "house", "state": "KY", "district": "02", "dem_candidate": "Hank Linderman", "rep_candidate": "Brett S. 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Lynch", "rep_candidate": null, "dem_probability": 0.999, "rep_probability": 0.001, "forecast_margin_d_minus_r": 30.934, "prior_margin": 30.934, "poll_weight": 0.0, "poll_count": 0, "latest_race_poll": null, "cutoff": "2018-11-05" }, { "race_code": "MA-09", "race_type": "house", "state": "MA", "district": "09", "dem_candidate": "William Keating", "rep_candidate": "Peter D. 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"2018-10-30", "dem_probability": 0.999 }, { "cutoff": "2018-11-05", "dem_probability": 0.999 } ] }, { "race_code": "WI-05", "points": [ { "cutoff": "2018-09-07", "dem_probability": 0.002809 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-07", "dem_probability": 0.003248 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-23", "dem_probability": 0.006043 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-30", "dem_probability": 0.004356 }, { "cutoff": "2018-11-05", "dem_probability": 0.003997 } ] }, { "race_code": "WI-06", "points": [ { "cutoff": "2018-09-07", "dem_probability": 0.039909 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-07", "dem_probability": 0.04418 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-23", "dem_probability": 0.06783 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-30", "dem_probability": 0.077723 }, { "cutoff": "2018-11-05", "dem_probability": 0.009939 } ] }, { "race_code": "WI-07", "points": [ { "cutoff": "2018-09-07", "dem_probability": 0.025955 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-07", "dem_probability": 0.028964 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-23", "dem_probability": 0.046064 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-30", "dem_probability": 0.036107 }, { "cutoff": "2018-11-05", "dem_probability": 0.03385 } ] }, { "race_code": "WI-08", "points": [ { "cutoff": "2018-09-07", "dem_probability": 0.055439 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-07", "dem_probability": 0.060976 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-23", "dem_probability": 0.090993 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-30", "dem_probability": 0.073788 }, { "cutoff": "2018-11-05", "dem_probability": 0.069788 } ] }, { "race_code": "WI-S1", "points": [ { "cutoff": "2018-09-07", "dem_probability": 0.904103 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-07", "dem_probability": 0.968927 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-23", "dem_probability": 0.985532 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-30", "dem_probability": 0.992297 }, { "cutoff": "2018-11-05", "dem_probability": 0.989419 } ] }, { "race_code": "WV-01", "points": [ { "cutoff": "2018-09-07", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-07", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-23", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-30", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-11-05", "dem_probability": 0.001 } ] }, { "race_code": "WV-02", "points": [ { "cutoff": "2018-09-07", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-07", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-23", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-30", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-11-05", "dem_probability": 0.001 } ] }, { "race_code": "WV-03", "points": [ { "cutoff": "2018-09-07", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-07", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-23", "dem_probability": 0.003431 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-30", "dem_probability": 0.001439 }, { "cutoff": "2018-11-05", "dem_probability": 0.001 } ] }, { "race_code": "WV-S1", "points": [ { "cutoff": "2018-09-07", "dem_probability": 0.002921 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-07", "dem_probability": 0.099488 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-23", "dem_probability": 0.421101 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-30", "dem_probability": 0.303019 }, { "cutoff": "2018-11-05", "dem_probability": 0.399875 } ] }, { "race_code": "WY-01", "points": [ { "cutoff": "2018-09-07", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-07", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-23", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-30", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-11-05", "dem_probability": 0.001 } ] }, { "race_code": "WY-S1", "points": [ { "cutoff": "2018-09-07", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-07", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-23", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-10-30", "dem_probability": 0.001 }, { "cutoff": "2018-11-05", "dem_probability": 0.001 } ] } ] }, { "cycle": 2022, "election_date": "2022-11-08", "corpus_state": "awaiting_verified_inputs", "provenance": [], "checkpoints": [], "state": "unavailable", "blocking_reasons": [ "corpus_not_admitted", "missing:races.csv", "missing:polls.csv", "missing:results.csv", "unverified_national_presidential_margins", "provenance_not_admitted" ] } ], "summary": { "state": "partial", "scored_cycles": 1, "requested_cycles": 2, "message": "Historical performance remains unpublished until each cycle passes the leakage-free corpus gates." } }