EVIDENCE · UNCERTAINTY · ACCOUNTABILITY

2026
MIDTERM
FORECAST

Election day · 3 November 2026

—DAYS TO ELECTION

PRODUCTION BASELINE

Live probabilistic forecast. Polling and public election inputs feed a transparent numerical model; qualitative news does not.

HOUSE · 218 FOR CONTROL

DEM—control probability

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REP—control probability

— expected D seats— 80% range

SENATE · 51 FOR DEMOCRATIC CONTROL

DEM—control probability

/

REP—control probability

— expected D seats— 80% range

National environment—generic congressional ballot · D−R

Model coverage—House + Senate contests modelled

Simulation—correlated chamber simulations

Last model run—UTC · inputs pinned to a git commit

HOUSE

Tipping-point races

SENATE

Control battlegrounds

WHAT CHANGED?

First production run loading

The forecast refresh is assembling the first published baseline.

HOUSE

All 435 districts

Each row is a modelled probability and estimated two-party vote, not a categorical call. Search, sort and inspect the full field.

SENATE · CLASS II + SPECIAL ELECTIONS

Every 2026 Senate contest

Control probability accounts for seats not up this cycle and the Republican vice president's tie-break.

POLLING

The national environment

Polling aggregation is an observation layer. It influences the model but is not itself the forecast.

35-DAY WEIGHTED GENERIC BALLOT

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RECENT INPUTS

Generic-ballot polls

RACE EXPLORER

House + Senate

One searchable surface for every federal legislative contest in the model.

FORECAST HISTORY

Snapshots, not overwritten memory

Each numerical refresh is archived in Git. The latest snapshots are listed below with their chamber probabilities and national environment.

Loading snapshot index…

METHODOLOGY

How the numbers are made

No hidden editorial thumb on the scale. The model is intentionally legible.

LIMITATIONS

What this model does not know perfectly

DATA PROVENANCE

Every run leaves receipts

Inputs are pinned to a specific upstream git commit before the model runs. The data mirror supplies factual/curated inputs, not probabilities from another forecast.

DAILY BRIEFING

What moved