MODEL LAB / AUDIT SYSTEM
Can the probabilities survive contact with history?
Historical replay, calibration and failure analysis for the frozen MIDTERM SIGNALS baseline. Evaluation only. No historical result is permitted to retune the live forecast.
Reading the audit artefact…
01 / REPLAY
The time machine
Five fixed snapshots per election: 60, 30, 14, 7 and 1 day before voting.
Loading historical cycle states…
02 / CALIBRATION
When we said 70%, did 70% happen?
Brier score, log loss and reliability are published only after a complete leakage-free replay clears the gates.
Loading calibration state…
03 / FAILURES
Show us the wreckage
Confident misses belong on the front bench, not under the carpet.
Loading failure analysis…
04 / METHODOLOGY
Anti-leakage architecture
The replay is valid only if the information boundary is valid.